Sensitivity of river ecological baseflow to climate change in arid areas

River ecological baseflow is key to river ecosystem health and stability has become particularly important with global climate change aggravation. By considering the Niya Basin in Xinjiang, based on meteorological data from 1958 2021 hydrological 1978 2018, Tennant method was determined be best basin calculation method, M–K test used analyze abrupt characteristics, regression response sensitivity coefficient models concerning were established. The results showed that 75% of ranged 15 31 m 3 •s −1 1978–2018, average annual temperature increased by 1.6°C at a 0.22°C•(10a) rate, precipitation 6.3 mm 0.98 mm•(10a) rate. prediction accuracy model good, R 2 exceeded 0.7, lagged, greatly impacted baseflow. decreasing trend upstream downstream, maximum value 2010, minimum 1984, monthly April November. Based social water use basin, protection targets measures proposed according season period for actual resource management scheduling this similar regions.